Single Comment

Nuts, I'm still not clear enough. HG, thank you for being willing to
consider that Chief has no first move advantage. To clarify my position,
it's very clear that black has to start responding within a few turns of
white starting to move, or black will be crushed. And a move advantage will
show up after a few turns. On the 16x120, or the 8x80, black *has* to come
up to meet white, or clearly black cedes an advantage to white. 

To clarify what I mean by "fast" promotion, I mean promotion can occur in
a minimum of turns, that it's only 2 or 3 steps [moves remaining] to
promote. This can occur any time during the game, and may occur 78 squares
down the chessboard in turn 497. "Fast" is meant only for the immediate
situation, not how long it takes to get there. And that is why you are
clearly right that there is an advantage to pushing down a very long board,
if you can push far enough. On the 8x80, if I met you at row 30 instead of
row 40, there still wouldn't be any significant value to promotion.
However, if I met you at row 8 or 10, then clearly there is a value to
promotions down the road, because we know promotions happen on 8x8 and
10x10 boards, and you would have the advantage. Somewhere between row 40
and row 8, pawn advancement goes from only a tactical value to a strategic
one, in the sense that each square advanced becomes more meaningful for
promotion, and is not just meaningful for local position. 

My 30% figure is the edge white has in wins when draws are discarded. It
was based on a white-black points win total of 54-46. If we accept the
lower figure of 53-47, then white has won 6% more, for a ratio of 6 divided
by 1/2 of 53 + 47 = 6/50 = 12% edge to white. If you recalculate and
discard 3/8th of the games as draws, a ratio I also gave earlier, then the
pure white wins to black wins ratio is on the order of 30%. With the
53%-47%, the white wins to black wins without draws works out to [about] 34
wins to blacks 28 per 100 games, or 6 divided by 31, about a 24% win
advantage for white. I find this number very significant, and a very strong
signal of white's 1st move ad. And that's where I get the higher numbers
from.