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First move advantage in Western Chess - why does it exist?[Subject Thread] [Add Response]

Joe Joyce wrote on Tue, Aug 14, 2012 06:27 AM UTC:

Now, as to promotion vs mobility. Promotion occurs rarely, in roughly 3% of
games [average of 4.4% and 1.5%] but influences a lot more. As a reasonable
initial estimate, we could say 30% of games end because one player
demonstrates pawn promotion. And the only statistic we have shows promo
numbers mirror won-lost-drew point totals, so pawn promotion can account
for maybe 1/3 of the advantage, tops. What is the other 2/3? And why does
white promote more often than black, anyhow? I would think the underlying
reason is the enormous mobility of the pieces. And this should show up as
an evening out of the pawn promo ratio in GtS. If enough games could ever
be run. And now it's past my bedtime. I'm enjoying this conversation
entirely too much - thanks. ;-) To be continued...